QUBT
Quantum Computing Inc.Thesis. QUBT sits on $986M cash against a $1.96B cap, but trailing revenue of ~$4.3M and negative gross margin leave the multiple detached from delivery. Trade the quantum-policy tailwind and NeuraWave order pipeline, but demand execution before underwriting the analyst consensus $18 target.
Scoreboard
At $8.69, QUBT trades 66% below its 52-week high of $25.84 and just 41% above the $6.18 low, sitting in the 13th percentile of its annual range. The $1.96B market cap capitalizes a company that generated $3.7M in Q1 revenue — a 452x price-to-sales multiple. Consensus target of $18.33 implies 111% upside, but the $10 low-end target is the more sober anchor given the delivery gap.
QoQ Changes
Q1 2026 revenue jumped to $3.69M from $198K in Q4 2025 — a step-change likely tied to product recognition, though off a trivial base. EPS printed -$0.02, beating the -$0.0495 consensus by 60%.
Gross profit swung negative to -$721K in Q1 (gross margin -15%) versus positive prints in the prior two quarters. Operating income remained deeply red at -$20.6M, EBITDA at -$1.6M.
FCF margin runs at roughly -931% of revenue with an fcf_yield of -2.1%, reflecting negligible top line against a full opex load. Burn is manageable only because the balance sheet is fortress-like.
Cash of $986M dwarfs $5.4M of total debt, netting $981M — $4.37 per share, roughly half the equity value. Current ratio of 66.7x and quick ratio of 66.1x remove any near-term solvency question.
EV/revenue of 226x and P/S of 452x are among the richest in the sector; forward P/E is negative at -22.9x. Only P/B at 1.23x looks tethered, anchored by the cash pile.
June 2026 order from Planck Dynamics for five NeuraWave photonic reservoir systems, with a stated pathway to 100 units worth $10M+, is the first credible commercial signpost. Headcount remains just 72, implying revenue/employee of only ~$60K.
Ownership & Insider Activity
SEC Form 4 flow is dominated by compensation awards (code A) to the CEO and directors in April-May 2026 — not conviction buys. The only open-market activity was General Counsel Christopher Roberts selling ~$615K in March 2026 following a 400K option exercise, producing net insider sells of $2.78M and zero open-market purchases. Short interest at 29.4% of float (58.7M shares, 2.42 days to cover) signals a heavily contested name where any positive catalyst risks a squeeze.
Recent Insider Transactions
| Date | Insider | Position | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | HUANG YUPING | Chief Executive Officer | 58,558 | $0.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | DIANAT POUYA | Officer | 24,774 | $0.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | BEGLIARBEKOV MILAN | Chief Operating Officer | 24,774 | $0.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | TURMELLE MICHAEL C | Director | 22,123 | $150.0K |
| 2026-04-13 | FAGENSON ROBERT B | Director | 22,123 | $150.0K |
| 2026-04-13 | WEIMER CARL SCOTT | Director | 22,123 | $150.0K |
Earnings Quality
| Period | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 Q1 | $-0.02 | $-0.05 | +$0.03 | +59.60% |
| 2025-12-31 Q4 | $-0.01 | $-0.03 | +$0.02 | +69.88% |
| 2025-09-30 Q3 | $0.01 | $-0.06 | +$0.07 | +117.30% |
| 2025-06-30 Q2 | $-0.26 | $-0.06 | $-0.20 | -363.46% |
QUBT beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters (75% beat rate), but the average surprise is -29% dragged by the Q2 2025 -363% miss (-$0.26 vs -$0.056 estimate). Beats are on losses, not profits — a low bar.
Recent surprises are narrowing to the upside (+60% in Q1 2026, +70% in Q4 2025), suggesting analysts have recalibrated loss expectations lower and management is defending the burn narrative.
Analyst Action
| Month | Distribution | Strong Buy | Buy | Hold | Sell | Strong Sell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-06 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-05 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-04 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
The Buy bucket expanded from 5 (April) to 7 (July) while Strong Buy held at 2 and Hold steady at 3 — a modest bullish drift with zero sell ratings across the window. Recommendation mean sits at 1.67 (Buy).
Momentum is mildly bullish, but no upgrades or downgrades in the last 15 days — the ratings are policy-tailwind coattails, not earnings-driven conviction.
Seven Essential Metrics
Gross margin -15%, operating margin -557%, ROE -4.4% — no path to profitability visible in reported data.
Revenue growth of 94% YoY is optically strong but off a sub-$5M base with lumpy quarterly recognition.
FCF yield -2.1% and FCF margin deeply negative; the company funds itself from the balance sheet, not operations.
Net cash of $981M against $5.4M debt; debt/equity 0.34 — pristine.
Beta of 3.78, 29% short interest, and a 452x sales multiple make this a high-volatility momentum vehicle.
EV/revenue 226x, P/S 452x, forward P/E -22.9x — priced for a future not yet in the numbers.
Ongoing equity-funded burn and compensation awards (net insider sells $2.78M) point to continued dilution, not returns.
No dividend; all capital directed to R&D and photonics commercialization.
Competitive Snapshot
| Company | EBITDA Margin | 3Y Rev CAGR | FCF Margin | Leverage | Fwd P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IONQ IonQ Inc. | ~-150% | ~90% | ~-200% | Net cash | negative |
QBTS D-Wave Quantum | ~-300% | ~15% | ~-250% | Net cash | negative |
RGTI Rigetti Computing | ~-400% | ~10% | ~-350% | Net cash | negative |
IBM International Business Machines | ~22% | ~3% | ~15% | ~2x | ~22x |
Against pure-play peers IONQ, QBTS and RGTI, QUBT is the smallest by revenue but carries the richest sales multiple, distinguished only by its integrated-photonics thin-film lithium niobate angle. Its $986M cash chest is a genuine differentiator versus cash-constrained smaller peers, but does not justify a 226x EV/revenue premium. IBM remains the profitable, diversified quantum optionality trade for risk-averse capital.
Business & Strategy
Revenue is nascent and lumpy, spanning integrated photonics chips (thin-film lithium niobate modulators, frequency-conversion devices), the Entropy Quantum Computer, and reservoir computers EmuCore and NeuraWave. The June NeuraWave order marks the first shift toward repeatable product revenue.
Commercial and government markets in the U.S., with early orders like Planck Dynamics' five-system NeuraWave purchase.
Hardware sales of photonic chips and computing systems, plus emerging LiDAR, quantum vibrometry, networking and authentication products. All streams remain pre-scale.
R&D and fab/photonics engineering headcount (72 employees) dominate cost; operating losses run ~$20M/quarter against sub-$4M revenue.
The thin-film lithium niobate foundry positioning offers a plausible differentiated IP moat if manufacturing scales. But with negative gross margins and no proven yield economics, the moat is aspirational rather than demonstrated.
Monetary-Policy Sensitivity
- High-beta long-duration growth profile
- Speculative capital rotation on lower discount rates
- Zero-debt balance sheet insulates from rate cost
As a profitless, high-beta (3.78) long-duration asset, QUBT is highly sensitive to the discount-rate regime and would outperform on dovish surprises. The pristine balance sheet means rate cuts help via multiple expansion, not funding cost — a pure sentiment lever.
SWOT Analysis
- $986M cash / $981M net cash provides multi-year runway
- 94% YoY revenue growth off a low base
- Differentiated thin-film lithium niobate photonics IP
- Zero sell ratings; bullish analyst drift and 111% consensus upside
- Negative gross margin (-15%) and -557% operating margin
- 452x P/S / 226x EV/revenue — extreme valuation
- Only $60K revenue per employee
- Net insider selling of $2.78M with no open-market buys
- NeuraWave pathway to 100 systems / $10M+
- Trump quantum executive orders boosting sector capital
- Government contracts in quantum sensing and networking
- Short squeeze potential at 29% of float short
- Quantinuum IPO ($14.3B) reprices and competes for sector capital
- Cash-burn scrutiny per '24/7 Wall St.' survivability coverage
- 3.78 beta magnifies drawdowns in risk-off tape
- Commercialization may lag the priced-in narrative for years
Catalysts & Event Risks
- Q2 2026Q2 2026 earnings
Next print tests whether the Q1 revenue step-up to $3.7M is repeatable or one-off.
- Q3 2026NeuraWave deployment progress
Conversion of the Planck Dynamics five-unit order toward the stated 100-system / $10M+ pathway.
- 2026-H2Federal quantum funding allocation
Follow-through on Trump's June quantum executive orders could channel government contracts to U.S. players.
- 2026-H2Photonics foundry milestones
Evidence of positive gross margin from chip manufacturing would materially re-rate the story.
- Q3 2026Short-squeeze dynamics
29% short float and 2.42-day cover create asymmetric upside on any positive surprise.
The near-term tape is driven by policy headlines and order announcements rather than earnings quality. Watch NeuraWave conversion and any gross-margin inflection as the fundamental triggers that would justify chasing the consensus target.
Technical Analysis
QUBT trades below both its 50-day ($10.20) and 200-day ($11.45) moving averages, confirming a downtrend and a bearish MA stack. At $8.69 it sits in the 13th percentile of the 52-week range, with the $6.18 low as the critical support shelf. The 50-day average at ~$10.20 is the immediate resistance; a reclaim would be the first sign of trend repair. Risk-reward favors patience — buy weakness toward $6-7, not strength.
Verdict
Macro context. Quantum computing equities are riding a policy tailwind from Trump's June 2026 quantum executive orders and intensifying U.S.-China tech competition, but the sector is priced as a single speculative trade. A dovish rate path would amplify these high-beta names; a risk-off rotation would hit them first.
QUBT is a fortress-balance-sheet ($981M net cash) quantum-photonics option wrapped in a 452x-sales valuation that the current $4M revenue base cannot support. The NeuraWave order and policy tailwinds are real catalysts, but negative gross margins, $2.78M of net insider selling, and a downtrend below both key moving averages argue against chasing here. HOLD — accumulate only on a pullback toward $6-7 or on demonstrated gross-margin inflection; the risk-reward at $8.69 is balanced, not compelling.
Data source: Yahoo Finance / yfinance · fetched 7/8/2026, 6:18:48 AM