QBTS
D-Wave Quantum Inc.Thesis. QBTS boasts a fortress balance sheet ($588M cash, near-zero net debt) and a fresh policy tailwind after Trump's June quantum executive orders and a $100M CHIPS Act stake, but trades at 627x sales on collapsing revenue (-81% YoY). We rate HOLD: the government-funding narrative supports the equity, yet insider selling and speculative valuation cap risk-adjusted upside.
Scoreboard
At $21.06, QBTS sits 55% below its 52-week high of $46.75 but still 65% above the $12.75 low, occupying just the 24th percentile of its annual range. The $7.8B market cap ascribes ~$583M EV to a business generating $2.86M in quarterly revenue. Consensus target of $37.39 implies 78% upside, but the $22 low target sits essentially at spot — the analyst spread is extreme.
QoQ Changes
Q1 2026 revenue of $2.86M rose 3.9% QoQ from $2.75M but revenue is down 81% YoY — a genuinely tiny top line. Basic EPS improved to -$0.05 from -$0.12, and the -$0.01 adjusted print beat consensus by 87%.
Gross margin held at a healthy ~64% ($1.82M on $2.86M), but operating income deteriorated to -$54.7M, an operating margin of roughly -1,900%. EBITDA remained deeply negative at -$42.4M.
FCF margin runs at approximately -510%, reflecting a cash-burning R&D-heavy model with negligible revenue. FCF yield is -0.8% against the current cap.
Cash of $588M against just $47M total debt yields $542M net cash and a current ratio of 21.4x — liquidity is not a near-term concern. The equity funds the science; it does not yet monetize it.
At 627x P/S, 583x EV/revenue, and -54x forward P/E, QBTS is priced for a decade-out commercialization dream. These multiples have no historical or peer anchor and are pure narrative.
Recent wins include a ~$1.6M NSF grant for the Yale-led ERASE fault-tolerance program and inclusion in a $100M U.S. government investment. D-Wave also launched a gate-model simulator and refreshed its roadmap targeting 100 logical qubits by 2032.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Finnhub Form 4 data shows net insider selling of ~$26.2M with zero purchases over the window. CEO Baratz exercised options at $0.85-$0.91 and dumped 687,627 shares at $26.13 for ~$18.0M on June 8; CFO Markovich sold ~$7.6M across multiple open-market tranches at $24-$26. This aggressive C-suite distribution into strength, combined with 17.2% short interest (rising from 50.3M to 55.7M shares), is a cautionary cross-signal.
Recent Insider Transactions
| Date | Insider | Position | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | MARKOVICH JOHN M | Chief Financial Officer | 246,043 | $6.2M |
| 2026-06-15 | GHAI ROHIT | Director | 13,518 | $357.1K |
| 2026-06-09 | MARKOVICH JOHN M | Chief Financial Officer | 51,049 | $1.3M |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | Chief Executive Officer | 687,627 | $612.1K |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | Chief Executive Officer | 687,627 | $18.0M |
| 2026-06-05 | DILULLO JOHN DAVID | Director | 7,850 | $191.8K |
Earnings Quality
| Period | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 Q1 | $-0.01 | $-0.08 | +$0.07 | +87.20% |
| 2025-12-31 Q4 | $-0.09 | $-0.07 | $-0.02 | -33.14% |
| 2025-09-30 Q3 | $-0.05 | $-0.07 | +$0.02 | +27.22% |
| 2025-06-30 Q2 | $-0.08 | $-0.05 | $-0.03 | -63.27% |
Beat consensus in 2 of last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +4.5% — inconsistent, with the standout +87% Q1 2026 beat offset by a -63% Q2 2025 miss.
EPS surprises are volatile rather than trending; the loss narrowed sharply into Q1 2026, but on a business this small any single line item swings the print, limiting predictive value.
Analyst Action
| Month | Distribution | Strong Buy | Buy | Hold | Sell | Strong Sell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-06 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-05 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-04 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The rating book strengthened modestly: Strong Buy holds at 5 while Buy climbed from 14 to 15 and Hold ticked down from 3 to 2 between April and July 2026, with zero Sell ratings throughout.
Momentum is mildly bullish, with Mizuho raising its target to $35 in June, though no formal upgrades/downgrades occurred in the last 15 days.
Seven Essential Metrics
Operating margin -1,900%, ROE -55.3%, EBITDA -$42.4M in Q1 despite 64% gross margin.
Revenue down 81% YoY to $2.86M quarterly; no clear commercial inflection yet.
FCF margin ~-510%, FCF yield -0.8% — persistent cash burn funded by equity.
Net cash of $542M; total debt only $47M against $588M cash.
Beta 2.1, 17.2% short interest, speculative story stock dependent on external funding.
627x P/S, 583x EV/revenue, -54x forward P/E — no fundamental anchor.
Equity-funded model with ongoing option-based dilution; no buyback capacity.
No dividend; all capital directed toward R&D and roadmap execution.
Competitive Snapshot
| Company | EBITDA Margin | 3Y Rev CAGR | FCF Margin | Leverage | Fwd P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IONQ IonQ Inc. | ~-200% | ~80% | ~-250% | Net cash | neg |
RGTI Rigetti Computing | ~-300% | ~10% | ~-400% | Net cash | neg |
QBTS D-Wave Quantum | ~-1500% | negative | ~-510% | Net cash | -54x |
IBM IBM (quantum div.) | ~22% | ~5% | ~15% | ~2x | ~22x |
Among pure-plays, IonQ commands the strongest growth trajectory and gate-model mindshare, while D-Wave's annealing-first architecture is more commercially deployable today but narrower in addressable use cases. All quantum pure-plays share cash-burning models and net-cash balance sheets; IBM offers profitable, diversified exposure for risk-averse quantum investors. QBTS's -81% revenue print is the weakest of the cohort and hardest to justify at its multiple.
Business & Strategy
Monetary-Policy Sensitivity
SWOT Analysis
Catalysts & Event Risks
Technical Analysis
Data source: Yahoo Finance / yfinance · fetched 7/8/2026, 6:17:44 AM