Defense
Defense primes and emerging drone/autonomy companies.
5 reports in coverage
Defense
Defense supercycle intact; asymmetric drone/autonomy names lead the primes
Thesis. A structural, multi-year spending upcycle — driven by great-power competition, a $1.5tn+ US budget trajectory into FY27, and a NATO-wide rearmament push — underwrites both the primes and a new tier of drone/autonomy/missile disruptors. The war in Ukraine rewired procurement toward attritable, software-defined systems (loitering munitions, jet drones, C-UAS), where the emerging names hold the technological edge while the primes still own scale, backlog, and cash. Sentiment reset the primes off their highs on program charges and integration noise, creating a buyable dislocation in quality compounders. Own the barbell: mega-cap ballast plus asymmetric upside in autonomy.
Where we are in the cycle. Mid-cycle: past the euphoric 2022-24 re-rating and through a healthy digestion phase, with primes trading well off highs. The budget cycle is still accelerating, so this is a buyable pause within a longer secular expansion, not a top.
Macro context
- Sustained US defense budget growth toward $1.5tn FY27 plus supplemental munitions replenishment
- NATO/EU rearmament — members lifting spend toward and beyond 3% of GDP, expanding the addressable market
- Ukraine/Middle East conflicts validating attritable drones, loitering munitions, and layered missile defense — permanent doctrine shift, not a one-off
- Fiscal/political risk: continuing resolutions, debt-ceiling fights, and potential appropriations delays can slip revenue recognition
- Fixed-price legacy program charges and supply-chain/labor inflation compressing prime margins
- Rich valuations on the emerging names leave zero room for execution stumbles
Top picks
Highest conviction sits with the quality-on-sale primes: NOC (target 665, ~21% upside) trading 29% off its high into the spending cycle, and LMT (615) as a low-beta compounder at a below-market multiple with undersea M&A optionality. RTX (220) offers the best missile/defense backlog visibility with 4-of-4 EPS beats, though the multiple is full — accumulate, don't chase.
| Ticker | Company | Rating | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Oversold secular winner in jet drones and hypersonics, but valuation still demands flawless execution — accumulate on weakness. | ACCUMULATE | $71.00 | +41.0% |
| AVAV | AeroVironment, Inc. Best-in-class loitering munitions and C-UAS franchise, oversold after BlueHalo integration noise — accumulate into the reset. | ACCUMULATE | $210.00 | +29.2% |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman Corporation Best-in-class defense prime trading 29% off its high into a $1.5tn FY27 spending cycle — quality on sale. | ACCUMULATE | $665.00 | +21.1% |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corporation Structural defense-spending tailwind and undersea M&A offset messy program charges; low-beta compounder at a below-market forward multiple. | ACCUMULATE | $615.00 | +14.9% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation Best-in-class missile/defense backlog and 4-of-4 EPS beats justify accumulating RTX despite a full multiple. | ACCUMULATE | $220.00 | +9.5% |
Watch list
AVAV (target 210, ~29% upside) is the purest attritable-warfare play — best-in-class loitering munitions and C-UAS, oversold on BlueHalo integration noise — while KTOS (71, ~41% upside) is the highest-torque bet on jet drones and hypersonics but prices in flawless execution.
Risks
- Budget stall or CR — appropriations gridlock delays awards and pushes bookings into out-years
- Margin disappointment on fixed-price legacy programs and continued cost inflation at the primes
- Multiple compression on high-beta names (KTOS, AVAV) if a single quarter misses or integration slips
- Geopolitical de-escalation or a policy pivot toward efficiency/cuts that dents the spending narrative
Catalysts to watch
- Q3-Q4 2026FY27 defense appropriations / NDAA progress
Confirms the $1.5tn trajectory and de-risks the multi-year backlog for primes and disruptors alike.
- Late July 2026Q2 2026 earnings season (LMT, NOC, RTX, KTOS, AVAV)
Prime margin trajectory and book-to-bill will decide whether the reset in NOC/LMT is a bottom.
- H2 2026AVAV BlueHalo integration milestones
Evidence the acquisition noise is fading would unlock the oversold discount toward the 210 target.
- Ongoing 2026NATO capital commitments and EU munitions contracts
Fresh European orders broaden demand beyond the US budget and support the secular thesis.
Verdict
Buy the dislocation with a barbell: anchor in the reset primes — NOC and LMT offer the best risk-adjusted upside as quality on sale, with RTX for backlog visibility. Layer in AVAV and KTOS for asymmetric autonomy/drone exposure, but size them for volatility and add on weakness. The secular spending cycle is intact and mid-innings — accumulate, don't wait for a top that isn't here yet.
Reports in coverage
Best-in-class loitering munitions and C-UAS franchise, oversold after BlueHalo integration noise — accumulate into the reset.
Oversold secular winner in jet drones and hypersonics, but valuation still demands flawless execution — accumulate on weakness.
Structural defense-spending tailwind and undersea M&A offset messy program charges; low-beta compounder at a below-market forward multiple.
Best-in-class defense prime trading 29% off its high into a $1.5tn FY27 spending cycle — quality on sale.
Best-in-class missile/defense backlog and 4-of-4 EPS beats justify accumulating RTX despite a full multiple.