BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.Thesis. BigBear.ai trades at 12.9x sales and 10.3x EV/revenue against essentially flat top-line (-0.9% y/y) and a -50.6% EBITDA margin — a valuation that presumes hypergrowth that the numbers deny. With 29% of float sold short and insiders net sellers, the risk-reward skews to further multiple compression unless defense/digital-identity bookings inflect materially.
Scoreboard
At $3.43, BBAI sits just 14% above its 52-week low of $3.01 and a punishing 63% below the $9.39 high, deep in the bottom decile of its annual range (6.6% position). Market cap is $1.64B on $327M net cash; the Street's $5.33 mean target implies 55% upside, but that target rests on only three analysts and looks stale against a $3.76 SeekingAlpha Sell case. The stock trades below both its 50-day ($4.09) and 200-day ($5.13) averages — the tape is firmly heavy.
QoQ Changes
Q1-2026 revenue of $34.4M rose 26% sequentially from Q4-2025's $27.3M, but EPS deteriorated to -$0.12 from -$0.01. The print missed consensus by 47%, reversing the prior two quarters of upside surprises.
Gross margin recovered to 34% in Q1-2026 vs 20% in Q4, yet operating margin remained deeply negative at roughly -67% and EBITDA swung to -$49.4M. Trailing EBITDA margin of -50.6% underscores a cost base far outrunning revenue.
FCF margin sits at -46.7% with an FCF yield of -3.6%, confirming ongoing cash burn. There is no positive operating cash flow visible in the trailing quarters — the model is not yet self-funding.
The one genuine strength: $349M cash against just $24M debt yields $327M net cash and a current ratio of 6.08. Cash per share of $0.73 provides runway, but persistent burn erodes that cushion each quarter.
P/S of 12.9x and EV/revenue of 10.3x are aggressive for a company with negative revenue growth; forward P/E of -17.2x is meaningless given losses. Against flat growth, these multiples price BBAI as if it were a 30%+ grower.
The Ask Sage generative-AI platform and Pangiam digital-identity assets position BBAI in airport biometrics and defense agentic AI, echoed in recent Zacks/Motley Fool coverage on frictionless airport security. Headcount of 579 implies revenue/employee of just $220K — low for a software-labeled name and suggestive of a services-heavy mix.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Finnhub Form 4 data shows insiders net sellers of ~$492.5K with zero open-market buys; the only real conviction signals are outflows — Hayes sold 15,000 shares at $4.105 (5/8) and CFO Ricker sold 10,000 at $4.33 (5/22), both above the current $3.43. The 6/14 director grants (36,070 shares each, code A) are compensation, not conviction. With short interest at 29% of float (138M shares, up from 125M prior month) and a 2.91 short ratio, positioning is heavily bearish and squeeze-prone on any positive catalyst.
Recent Insider Transactions
| Date | Insider | Position | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. | Unknown | 36,070 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | EVANGELISTA ANTHONY | Director | 36,070 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | HAYES DOROTHY D. | Director | 36,070 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | FULCHINO PAUL E | Director | 36,070 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | CANNITO PETER ANTHONY JR | Director | 36,070 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE | Director | 36,070 | $0.00 |
Earnings Quality
| Period | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 Q1 | $-0.12 | $-0.08 | $-0.04 | -47.06% |
| 2025-12-31 Q4 | $-0.01 | $-0.06 | +$0.05 | +83.66% |
| 2025-09-30 Q3 | $0.01 | $-0.07 | +$0.08 | +113.37% |
| 2025-06-30 Q2 | $-0.49 | $-0.06 | $-0.43 | -658.51% |
BBAI beat in only 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the average surprise of -127% is dominated by the -658% Q2-2025 miss and -47% Q1-2026 miss — earnings quality is poor and erratic.
The swing from +113% (Q3-25) and +84% (Q4-25) surprises back to a -47% miss in Q1-26 shows widening dispersion, signaling analyst models are poorly calibrated and management guidance is unreliable.
Analyst Action
| Month | Distribution | Strong Buy | Buy | Hold | Sell | Strong Sell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-06 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-05 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2026-04 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
The Finnhub recommendation series has been frozen at 2 Strong Buy / 4 Buy / 3 Hold / 0 Sell across April through July 2026 — zero migration in either direction.
Rating momentum is flat/neutral with no upgrades or downgrades in the trailing 15 days, offering no confirming signal for the bull case.
Seven Essential Metrics
EBITDA margin -50.6%, operating margin -66.9%, ROE -58.4% — deeply unprofitable across every line.
Revenue growth of -0.9% y/y; the 'AI growth story' is not visible in the top line.
FCF margin -46.7% and FCF yield -3.6% — sustained cash burn.
$327M net cash, only $24M total debt — balance sheet is the standout positive.
Beta 3.13, 29% short interest, ongoing burn against a finite cash runway — elevated volatility and dilution risk.
12.9x P/S and 10.3x EV/revenue on flat, negative growth; forward P/E -17.2x.
479M shares outstanding with no buyback; continued equity issuance likely to fund losses.
No dividend and negative FCF preclude any capital return.
Competitive Snapshot
| Company | EBITDA Margin | 3Y Rev CAGR | FCF Margin | Leverage | Fwd P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLTR Palantir Technologies | ~35% | ~25% | ~30% | Net cash | ~180x |
SOUN SoundHound AI | ~-40% | ~55% | ~-35% | Net cash | n/a (loss) |
AI C3.ai | ~-40% | ~20% | ~-20% | Net cash | n/a (loss) |
GRRR Gorilla Technology | ~5% | ~45% | ~0% | <1x | ~15x |
Against Palantir's ~35% EBITDA margin and ~25% growth, BBAI's -50.6% EBITDA margin and -0.9% growth cannot justify a peer-comparable premium. Even loss-making SoundHound offers ~55% revenue CAGR versus BBAI's flat top line — BBAI is the weakest fundamental profile in the cohort at a still-rich 12.9x sales multiple.
Business & Strategy
Monetary-Policy Sensitivity
SWOT Analysis
Catalysts & Event Risks
Technical Analysis
Data source: Yahoo Finance / yfinance · fetched 7/8/2026, 6:09:28 AM